GRDC Conference 2010

Mr. Mick Keogh, Executive Director of The Australian Farm Institute, provided a positive long term outlook for grain. Mick identified that in the long term the following trends will have a positive impact on grain price:

  • Global population increase (1 billion extra people by 2025),
  • Increase in GDP per head and associated increase in protein intake, requiring more grain fed animals,
  • Limited supply of arable land in developed countries and poor infrastructure in countries with potential (especially South America and Africa),
  • Reduction in tariffs, particularly in China,
  • Against all of this, the strong $A is making our products expensive on the work market.

Mick pointed out that whilst commodity prices have fallen from recent highs, they are stabilizing at levels which suggest a long term uptrend compared with the long term downtrend which has occurred throughout the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s.
Our Response:

It is easy to go broke while waiting for the fundamental forces to have an effect.